1. World Black Market Value$1,810,052.83 Million ($1.81 Trillion)
  1. Value of Products: $1,638,981.80 Million ($1.63 Trillion)
  1. Value of Countries: $1,981,123.86 Million ($1.98 Trillion)


Havocscope Market Value

The Havocscope World Black Market Value is the estimated value of the global black market. This figure is determined by combining the total value of 50 contraband products and illegal activities with the total value of criminal markets in 91 countries. The total values from both the products and countries are added together, and then divided by 2, in order to produce the world black market value.

PRODUCTS

Havocscope is currently monitoring 50 black market products and activities around the world for which an estimated financial value is available. These values are usually obtained from government agencies, non-governmental organizations, and academic papers or media reports. Every figure that is a component of the Havocscope World Black Market Value is documented with the original source.  In some instances, the total illicit trade value is an aggregate total based upon several sources. In these instances, a link to every data source is clearly listed.

***Although Corruption and Bribery, Money Laundering and Organized Crime are monitored by Havocscope and are listed with an estimated black market value, they are not included in the Havocscope World Black Market Value. The reason for this exclusion is that the money involved in those 3 activities is usually generated from other illicit activities that are already included in the Value. At this time, it is difficult to determine exactly how much of an overlap there would be between the estimated values of those 3 activities and activities included in the Value. Thus, they are excluded to avoid double-counting the estimated values.

The total values of each of the 50 products and activities are added together to create Part I of the Havocscope World Black Market Value.

COUNTRIES

Part II of the Havocscope World Black Market Value consists of the aggregate total of the black market activity in the 91 countries that are monitored by Havocscope. Every country listed within the Value has an estimated illicit trade value attached to the country. The value is determined by adding up individual black markets within the individual countries, such as counterfeit goods or prostitution. Each value listed within every country is documented with the original source and a link when available.

The total values from each of the 91 countries are then added together to create Part II of the Havocscope World Black Market Value.

CALCULATION

Part I (Total Value of Products) + Part II (Total Value from Countries) DIVIDED BY 2 = Havocscope World Black Market Value

The Havocscope World Black Market Value should be seen as an available tool that captures current levels of understanding of the global black market. It should not be viewed as an accurate or final tally of the dollar value of the illicit economy. Due to the nature of the black market, there are many issues regarding the estimated nature of the figures utilized by Havocscope. Some of the issues include incomplete data, differences in calculation, and exaggeration of the problems for political and financial motives.

In addition, Havocscope does not actively attempt to independently verify the figures provided by the original sources. Havocscope acts as a neutral provider of information that collects the data that is being presented in public. Although it does make some editorial judgment in terms of the source’s credibility, Havocscope is currently unable to verify the figures at this time.

Additional Resources:
>> Principles of Havocscope